2025 proves to be a promising year for the Philippines with the presence of opportunities and consumption rebound despite tangible risks and challenges.
Ms. Wendy Estacio-Cruz, USI Head of Research; Mr. Ben Thomas Panares, USI President and CEO; and Mr. Emilio “Jun” Neri, Jr., Bank of the Philippine Islands SVP and Lead Economist during the Unicapital 2025 Outlook briefing
This is what leading independent financial services provider and investment house Unicapital Group (Unicapital), through its securities brokerage arm Unicapital Securities, Incorporated (USI), said in its outlook for 2025.
Unicapital underscored that the Philippines is expected to maintain its position as one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia despite economic challenges and pressures from the new U.S. administration at the start of the year.
SECTOR GAINS DURING ELECTION SPENDING
Quantities of tarpaulins plastered on trees, lampposts and establishments, political ads on broadcast and digital platforms, and giant billboards along EDSA are some of the more evident signs that candidates are spending a hefty amount on the upcoming midterm elections. During election season, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) often experiences a short-term rally, fueled by a mix of optimism and a surge in liquidity. Key sectors poised to benefit include the consumer sector, construction and infrastructure, and media and telecommunications. In particular, consumer companies often report a 5% to 10% increase in revenues, as heightened spending drives demand for everyday essentials and lifestyle purchases.
“We see an all-out election spending both on a local and national scale as we move closer to the May midterm elections. This, coupled with easing inflation, will boost household spending and ultimately favor the economy’s growth this year” said Wendy Estacio-Cruz, USI Head of Research.
DOMESTIC OPPORTUNITIES AND POLICY SHIFTS
With the expected continuity of policy rate cuts, Unicapital projects 6.3% GDP growth, strong growth potential, and promising opportunities for the country. In terms of monetary policy, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) is likely to maintain a measured easing stance, depending on developments from the U.S. Federal Reserve and global trade policies.
Unicapital recognizes the risks brought about by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties. Some risks could involve unforeseen events from external threats, potential trade wars, and the impact of global supply chain disruptions. Still, domestic opportunities and policy shifts will balance these out. These developments present a promising outlook for investors, offering numerous actionable insights.
The recently signed Corporate Recovery and Tax Incentives for Enterprises to Maximize Opportunities for Reinvigorating the Economy (CREATE MORE) law remains a strong driving force that is seen to improve the Philippine equity market, powering further growth for domestic and foreign capital inflows.
During the event, Bank of the Philippine Islands’ (BPI) Lead Economist Emilio “Jun” Neri also shared additional insights, highlighting the global economic impact of President Donald Trump’s policies after his return to the White House, as well as the Philippine mid-term elections in May. He added that challenges such as external supply shocks for food and oil could still impact growth.
Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)’s Lead Economist Emilio “Jun” Neri shares his insights on the Philippine economic outlook for 2025
PSEi AND KEY GROWTH SECTORS
Unicapital projects a PSEi target of 7,800, driven by a 10% stock market earnings growth rate. Easing interest rates and stronger market liquidity are expected to benefit the banking, consumer, and real estate sectors.
The Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) market remains robust, and offers high yields, while the gaming sector continues to expand locally through online casinos and internationally in emerging markets like Brazil.
Unicapital Securities, Inc. (USI) President & CEO Ben Thomas Pañares assured Unicapital’s sustained support of stakeholders and regulators in achieving a unified goal.
“USI strives to improve its services and offers to continue serving both stakeholders and regulators. We remain focused on our mission to assist mid-cap markets and emerging companies, and educate stakeholders on available actions or solutions that will help them achieve financial success,” Pañares said.
As for Owen Kiefer Ocampo, Converge ICT’s VP-Head of Investor Relations, with the expected rise in demand for prepaid fiber underpinned by Filipinos’ growing preference for affordable and flexible internet solutions, Converge is poised to continue expanding into new target residential markets with the introduction of its flanker brands in 2023 and innovative services for enterprise customers to maintain its double-digit topline growth.
Converge ICT VP-Head of Investor Relations Owen Kiefer Ocampo illustrating the projected growth of Converge and the rise in demand for prepaid fiber
“With 2025 being a favorable year for the Philippine economy, Unicapital also believes it is an opportune time for investments. This will further usher the country in its post-pandemic rebound,” said Estacio-Cruz.
Unicapital Securities, Inc. Head of Research Wendy Estacio-Cruz unveiling the 2025 index target
Unicapital maintains its position that individuals with strong financial knowledge alongside resilient industries supporting economic growth are the backbone of an empowered economy. Unicapital remains committed to forging the country’s bright economic future by helping businesses and investors navigate their options and achieve their financial aspirations with confidence.
